The paper analyses the necessity of the investment risk analysis of chinese petroleum enterprises in dint of the development about the same business in home and overseas and gives a new method - monte carlo simulation method through connecting with general theories of investment risk analysis and basing on analyzing the problems which lie in the investment risk analysis and management and by grounding on original evaluation guideline system of investment risk analysis and decision - making model . the merits are that the method not only embodies uncertainty of risk elements but also makes up the limitation rooted in underestimating influence extent about all of risk elements by com bining original break even analysis and sensitivity analysis . the method perfects deeply investment risk analysis system and improved the accurateness of investment risk analysis 本文结合石油企业投资风险分析在国内外的发展状况，分析了我国石油企业进行投资风险分析研究的必要性，结合投资风险分析的一般理论，在分析我国石油企业目前投资风险分析与管理方面所存在的问题和我国石油企业原有的投资风险分析评价指标体系与决策模型的基础上，根据我国石油企业实际情况，引入蒙特卡罗模拟方法，充分体现各风险因素的不确定性，使之与原有的盈亏平衡分析、敏感性分析相结合，以弥补原有石油企业投资风险分析决策模型对各风险因素的影响程度考虑不足的缺陷，进一步完善投资风险分析系统，增强石油企业投资风险分析的准确性，并将其应用于辽河油田冷家西部开发方案中。
